New polling puts yes in the lead, but this is no time for complacency

In August last year, a Lord Ashcroft poll put independence support at 52%. More recently, a YouGov poll conducted shortly before Brexit, a few weeks ago put yes support at 51% and today, a Survation poll which was conducted around the same time as the YouGov poll put yes support at 50.2% yes. Another poll released today by Panelbase puts independence support at 52%.

Scottish independence rally

But let's not get too excited just yet.

Firstly, there is a margin of error with any polling data, and the real figure could be a few points higher or lower than the figures we're seeing here.

Secondly, democracy is fluid, and while we currently seem to be winning the arguments, and at least heading in the right direction, albeit slowly, we must never allow ourselves to become complacent, and we must be prepared to combat all kinds of Westminster propaganda and scaremongering.

In the last few days of the indyref campaign in 2014, private UK Government polling put yes at 52%, which prompted the government to promise federalism in return for a no vote.  Now of course, the vow of federalism was never delivered, but it was enough to create a big enough swing back to the no side in order to secure victory for the union.

Quebec looked to be heading for a yes vote in 1995, but they narrowly missed out on a yes vote, with only 49.42% yes.  This was despite yes having a 6% lead in the polls the day before the referendum.

We must be sure that when we fire the starting gun, that we are prepared and ready for everything that the Westminster establishment will throw at us.


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